Most football fans love a punt on the weekend’s results. The majority tend to bet based on a ‘feeling’ or just to have a little bit of fun, perhaps a cheeky accumulator to potentially hit it really big.
But when it comes to ‘outsmarting’ the bookies, making actual money, and lasting long enough to cash out, things get a little trickier. But there is a way that you can unlock an underused method to win: value betting.
Understanding Value Betting
The concept is pretty simple: find bets where the odds given by the bookmaker are higher than the probability that a given event will actually happen, giving you a positive expected value (EV). In other words, the bookmaker has potentially made a mistake with the odds, which means it’s worth placing a bet, regardless of what you personally think will happen.
The idea is that over the long run, with enough bets placed, the variance in results will be nullified, giving you a profit. The risk level here is relatively low, also, as you’re placing a bet on a single outcome. It’s also a pretty simple system to keep track of, as you’re just doing one bet at a time.
Let’s take a look at an example. Say that Ladbrokes is giving 1.8 odds on Arsenal beating Manchester City. Mathematically, that equates to a 55.6% probability. Let’s say that they think it’s a 50/50 affair, with a built-in profit accounting for the extra 5%.
But what if Arsenal have a 60% chance of winning? That’s where you’ve got yourself a value bet. Even if you have a gut feeling Pep will pull out the win in the end.
Truth Time: It Won’t Last Forever (How to Avoid Gubbing)
Bookies know that value betting is a ‘thing’. And they hate it, because people are using mathematics to hack the system. Companies like Ladbrokes and William Hill want the lad at the pub whipping his phone out for a cheeky punt, not someone with spreadsheets and a lack of alcohol in the system.
When gamblers start making too much money, and profits on a regular basis, automatic triggers and alarm bells will start going off. Your account will be reviewed, and your betting amounts may be limited (although you can still place a bet). In the most severe scenarios, your account will be closed. This is known as gubbing.
Avoiding gubbing is one of the biggest problems for value-betting players. The concepts of EV may seem a little complicated at first, but you’ll get the hang of it over time. It’ll become second nature. The real skill will be in getting to place the bet in the first place. There’s a solution to this: sign up for a different provider.
Go through every single big-name operator you can find, no matter the location. Whether you’re looking in the UK or finding the best football betting sites in Ireland, you have numerous possibilities at your fingertips. Exhaust all options, rinse and repeat. Don’t get married to a single operator, also because that will keep you from finding the best odds for a given match.
Odds Comparison
Calculating value isn’t always an exact science. One of the ways you can extract an average figure is by comparing odds with different bookmakers. You can then calculate an average, use your method to calculate the odds, and combine that to find whether there is value in a given bet.
To find all of the odds on the market, don’t do this one-by-one. You’ll end up diluting your hourly rate from gambling if you do that. Instead, use one of the many comparison sites out there.
There are a bunch of them and they don’t differ much in quality. They’re primarily making money off ads and sign-ups, so make sure you have your ad blocker on.
Team and Player Analysis
To figure out the odds in your books, you need to know the league and team inside and out. Your passion for Scunthorpe United needs to be multiplied across all teams.
We recommend sticking to the lower leagues, like the National League North (finally a good thing we’re not in the Premier League?). That’s because the bookies don’t have as much data to mine to set the odds.
Bookies don’t care about the lower leagues as much, because people tend to bet on the big money matches. Get value out of that by becoming an expert on a league that has plenty of betting options, but relatively fewer followers.
Injury and Suspension Updates
Of course, you need to keep your finger on the pulse of any injuries and suspensions. You need to react quickly to these events, so you can place your bets before the bookies change the odds.
For example, if you’re at The Shed and witness a key player getting injured, stop cursing to the heavens and get on that betting platform. See if there’s a bet you can place that offers value, before the bookies become aware of the injury.
Avoid This Mistake: Getting Impatient
The biggest problem with value betting is that you can’t bet on every match. In fact, you will probably end up having to skip placing bets, even if you’ve spent ages analysing the odds.
Don’t get impatient. If you don’t find the right odds, wait until you get that opportunity. Once you find it, that’s when you hit.
There are plenty of opportunities out there daily, you just need to spend the time and effort required to find the hidden gems. No one said it would be easy.