Promotion Chances Deep Analysis.

[lesgeo]

My personal statistician has run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining matches in the season (and playoffs) based upon the following inputs for:
Difficulty of remaining fixtures, taking into account home/away
Squad strengths / managerial experience
Analysts’ data
Form

In ~38% of simulations, the Iron finish 1st [Kidderminster actually win the division in ~4,400 simulations equating to a 44% chance of finishing first]
In ~31% of simulations, the Iron finish 2nd or 3rd and go up via the playoffs.

This equates to a 69% chance of promotion.

His caveat is that he thinks the model is overestimating the chance of winning in the playoffs because the model isn’t taking into account the capacity for human error in critical matches, and is giving too much weight to the home advantage in playoffs.

[cassidystash]

Is Rene your personal statistician?

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Square Ball Bullimore

[Square Ball Bullimore]

Lol … where is Rene ? Think he’s on X with Burnside

[Rene Artois]

3 sets of 3 games generates
19,683 different combinations.

That’s a lot of TnT.

Twists n Turns.

[lesgeo]

Yes. Three to the power 9 – or so I’m told.

[ironingboard]

Statistically statistics are correct 50% of the time, everytime.

[Deereyme66]

Old Bucksy was big on models. Usually in an effort to deny climate change.

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Ferrite

[ironingboard]

My browser history is full of well rounded models, airfix of course.

[Deereyme66]

IFA soapy massage post incoming

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Rene Artois

[ironfromafar]

Deereyme66 wrote:

IFA soapy massage post incoming

That gave me an early morning chuckle Dm68 .. its TNY Songkhran here and im up North only one soapy in the nearest town and its employees are lets say a tad over the hill and a couple of dubious gender in fact i would rather have AWG get me in a lather.
When in BKK i am keen on models and their stats the main three being how big, how long and how much.

Back to the footy … im sticking to my earlier prediction
1 Brackley
2 Kiddy
3 Iron

Based on both us and Kiddy will slip up n Brackley wont ..cant see us winning at KLT or Hereford TBH

Too many variables to guesstimate the play offs

[PhilAnders]

I think it unlikely we will win at both KLT and Hereford and thus we will not win the league. I agree that 3rd place is the most likely spot. I feel that we will win our home semi final ( whoever we play) but we will lose in the final. Progress from last year?

[Apollo11]

The advantage is definitely with Brackley (two home games), but anything could happen so it’s too close to call. The picture may well not be much clear after Good Friday’s matches. It is almost certainly going to go to the last game, this.

[BigLeftToe]

We tend to do ok against the better sides in this division…we’ve only lost once so far this season against anyone in the top 8 (won 6, drew 5, lost 1…and that was to a complete fluke of a goal Vs Kiddie away).

Unfortunately I can see us drawing against KL and Hereford, which I highly doubt will be enough for the title.

[Harrytheiron]

King’s Lynn the decider IMO. Win it and that’ll be the catalyst.

[Rene Artois]

We all know, it’s another MUST WIN game.
Kiddy & Brakly are both nailed on for three points each.

[Author]

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