Reply To: We are so much better…

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SODIronSODIron
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Registered On: July 8, 2014
Topics: 21

I think we can all agree that things appear to be heading in the right direction since KH took the reins however, one thing we need to happen quickly is wins!

Whilst improved performances indicate that he’s slowly turning things around we must remember that we need to finish 22nd to avoid being relegated. When we look back at the last few seasons, we can see on average a team needs 47 points to avoid relegation, with both Bristol Rovers and Barnet being relegated with 50 & 51 points respectively. The big question is “How many points do we need this season for safety?”.

Looking at the League 2 table we can see the teams in the relegation battle zone (20th or lower) are all averaging 1 point per game or less. Based on the form from the start of the season we have Carlisle, Oldham and of course us all projected to get less than 40 points for the season. Whilst we could potentially survive the drop on 40 points, I feel that we should be targeting a minimum of 48 points as this would give us a greater chance of avoiding relegation. The issue then becomes how do we get 34 points from the remaining 27 matches? We need KH to start turning this team of dustbins into a cohesive unit quickly so we can start to scrape a few wins and get those points on the board. We were thankful for Orients wasted opportunities last week, and the Bradford match could have gone either way.

December is a very important month for us, and the next two matches could really make or break our season. We need to win the Stevenage match to pull them right into the mix. If we can follow that with an away win at a out of form Hartlepool United (they’ve lost 5 on the bounce) we’ll be able to take some confidence into the Bristol home match, and the very important away match at Oldham on Boxing Day. A few good results this month could see us pull out of the drop zone, and more importantly, drag more teams into the battle. Failing to beat Stevenage and Oldham won’t relegate us, but it will make our job of survival so much harder. I feel that come the end of December we’ll have a much clearer understanding just where we’ll finish come the end of the season!

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