Talked to a statistician last night.
To stay up we probably need 50 points. Possibly a few less.
Draws will be the killer.
Win 9 – lose 8 would be perfectly fine. Win 8, draw 3 – we can only afford 6 defeats
With what is presumably a strengthened squad + recent form, he was prepared to suggest that our chances of survival might be one in three to an optimist.
