As the experience of many professional players has shown, value bet strategy is an effective method, capable of making good profits in the long run, but only with the proper use of it.
What is value bet
Bookmaker analysts usually quite accurately estimate the probability of the result of a sports event when the odds are formed. Moreover, the margin (guaranteed profit) is laid in each odds in order to eliminates unnecessary issues related to the bookie.
But anyway bookmakers still make mistakes and set odds that are higher than the real probability of the outcome of the event. This may be due to the late reaction of the bookie to changes in the event etc.
Therefore, the overall aim of valuebetting is to search for such underestimated outcomes with overstated odds.
In search of underestimated outcomes
Underestimated outcomes may be detected with special services. But you can also do that on your own:
First you need to calculate the real probability of the outcome, without the bookmaker’s margin. Two formulas are usually used: Determining the percentage of margin in the ratios
- Determining the margin of the odds: (100/K1 + 100/K2). К1 and К2 are the odds for the selected outcomes.
- Determining “real” odds: K1+БМ, K2+M. М is margin percent calculated with the first formula.
Process in details
Suppose we have the odds for the opposite outcomes TU (2.5) and TO (2.5) from three bookmakers:
B1: ТU(2.5) — 1.67, ТO(2.5) — 2.43
B2: ТU(2.5) — 1.48, ТO(2.5) — 2.32
B3: ТU(2.5) — 1.46, ТO(2.5) — 2.59
Then we calculate margin, real odds considering the bookmaker prices we trust the most (let’s imagine it’s B2):
100/1.48 + 100/2.32 = 110.67% (everything over 100% is margin, so it’s 10.67% in our case).
(1.48 + 10.61%) = 1.638 – real odds for ТU(2.5) and (2.32 + 10.61%) = 2.566 – real odds for TO(2.5).
Therefore, the most appropriate odds to bet are ТU(2.5) with B1 and ТO(2.5) with B3 since they slightly higher than the real probability of the outcomes.
As you see, independant search of overstated odds is quite tough and time consuming process. That’s why most bettors use special services for valuebetting.
Value bet scanner
As for today, there are several bid value bet scanners but the leader here is BetBurger. Using the service, gambler can promptly receive all the information on value bets in Live and Prematch.
Moreover, the scanner analyzes valuebets from more than 100 bookmakers in 25 kinds of sport, so you’ll have many options for profitable bets.
To sum up
Value bets may bring you great profit in the long run, which is already proven by so many gamblers.
As we already stated above, you can manage the search by yourself, but experts recommend using special value bet scanners like BetBurger. They’ll not only save your time but give you an extensive selection of bets.