Registered On: September 7, 2015
I’ve not read any of the above since my last post, but I suspect it’s more stuff about modelling.
My final comment on this will be that anyone looking for a perfect fit between expected temperature rise from CO2 concentrations and actual temperature is going to be disappointed. There are feedback loops caused by a trigger for rising global temperatures which makes inference imperfect. Therefore, those who don’t want to acknowledge the evidence can point to it and say “see, CO2 isn’t the cause, the mismatch shows there are other variables.”
What is neglected is that these other variables will be feedback loops only possible because of a rise in temperature, initiated by something else. The release of methane hydrates and a loss of albedo will be two factors in play. These will also cause rising temperatures, so will distort the temperature graph from what we expect from CO2 alone. Climate is complex, no-one denies this, yet ‘sceptics’ seem to rely on an over-simplistic means to disprove it, which can never be achieved. The current rise in temperature is not just down to CO2, but the other factors which also affect it are often driven by positive feedback loops initiated by a rise in temperature from the greenhouse effect. Without the trigger there would be no feedback loop, so it cannot be said that these other factors are the key factor for climate change. Only CO2 can for the current trend. Hence the anthropogenic nature of it.
We have evidence for this. Climate models for the current trend don’t make sense, without having a greenhouse effect initiated by increased CO2 levels and the associated feedbacks. Climate models from the 80s have predicted temperature rises which have actually fallen within the specified upper and lower limits for predicted change. We have external evidence, based on things like observed reduction in infrared loss from the atmosphere and a warming troposphere and cooling mesosphere and thermosphere. The latter shows that it cannot be solar influence for warming, but does show the greenhouse effect.
The problem for ‘sceptics’ is that they need to produce a mechanism and evidence which can explain the current warming, if they accept it as Bucks claims, which isn’t anthropogenic in nature. I’ve explained previously why things like the Sun and Milankovich Cycles cannot be the cause of the current trend, as are no other known natural variables. Stating that there is a magical climate forcing variable which is causing current warming is akin to BPG’s answer of God did it to science. For people supposedly sceptical, they seem willing to accept an explanation which has far more holes in. If there is no evidence for it, it will not be accepted. We have a good idea of what can lead to a thermal imbalance from physics and understanding of how the Earth operates to the best of our knowledge. If there’s something we’ve missed it needs to be explained and evidence given. Relying on cherry picked data from papers and misunderstandings of science, with some statistical knowledge thrown in, to make doubt sound rational doesn’t change this. As anthropogenic climate change actually has such evidence for it and the natural explanations don’t, most will be swayed by the argument that it’s anthropogenic.
This is not because of bias or corruption, but because it’s the most convincing argument at present. Something which has zero evidence for it will not be accepted as a leading theory over something with much evidence for it. It’s the height of arrogance to declare it otherwise, because it disagrees with your worldview, and it has been quite clear that Bucks is not willing or able to answer any of the queries over the lack of natural explanation. This has been evident throughout these discussions in the past.
Quite frankly, it is far more believe able that Bucks has got it wrong than actually the entirety of chemistry, geology, climatology and physics related to this area is involved in a mass conspiracy.
And that is it. I will not be reading responses to this, as I consider debate to be futile on this after years of it coming up. There’s no point in me wasting effort and time on it, when I don’t see it as worthwhile to speak to brick walls.